Would Roman Polanski go to prison if he let the US extradite him for trial ?

http://tvnz.co.nz/entertainment-news/pol...
I think he'd probably get probation while directing another movie. The alleged crime happened over 30 years ago and high officials in the French government have gone to bat for him.
Update: No I meant probation after a trial. He might be given bail with his passport taken and a ankle bracelet attached before trial.
Update 2: After reading the victim's grand jury testimony, I think Roman needs to do some jail time.
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