Who do people claim that the odds of winning the lottery is the same whether someone buys 1 ticket or a thousand tickets?
Probability theory suggests that the more ticket one buys for any particular lottery, the better the chances.
- Jay PLv 79 months ago
Let's assume you're buying a Powerball ticket. The odds are 1 in 292,201,338 to hit the jackpot.
If you buy 1000 tickets, your odds are now 1000 in 292,201,338. Yes, the odds are better but they are still infinitesimally small.
- p37ryLv 59 months ago
Because there is no guarantee that a winning ticket will be drawn for that drawing. If there was a winner every drawing, then you could reasonably expect the odds to increase. Since the odds are even that there won't be a winner at all, the overall odds of winning remain quite low. This is also a feature of the 'Gambler's Fallacy' - which essentially states that future results are not guaranteed by past performance. So just because nobody won the last three drawings, that doesn't mean the fourth is more likely to produce a winner - the odds are exactly the same as the first three drawings that there will be (or won't be) a winner at all.
- curtisports2Lv 79 months ago
Using the numbers for the January 1, 2019 Mega Millions prize of $425 million:
Rounded off. 48 million tickets were sold. You would have to buy 480,000 tickets to have a 1 percent chance, or .01. 48,000 to have a .001 chance. 4,800 to have a .0001.
Buying 1,000 tickets gives you a .000021 chance. Buying just one ticket puts three more zeroes in front of that, .000000021.
Yes, the odds are technically a thousand times smaller, but in the real world, the odds for both are so statistically tiny that there isn't much real difference, and that's what people mean.
- IamLv 69 months ago
The odds of wining the lottery are vanishingly small. So small that the odds of winning are nearly the same if you buy a ticket or not.
Yes, more tickets increase the statistical probability of winning until you reach 100% probability of winning [that's a lot of tickets] but you would not get back all the money you spent on tickets.
Here is my suggestion: Put one dollar [£1.00, €1.00] in a jar every week and at the end of one year you will "win" $52 / £52 / €52.
This sytem is nearly infallible.
Good luck everybody.
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- SatanLv 79 months ago
it's probably because they dont understand probability that well.
It's like when my mother used to get overtaken by another car and she would say that they wont get there any quicker, without understanding the whole speed-time-distance thing.
She used to have a very smug look on her face when she caught them up at the lights.