Why does the media not realize that the polls saying everyone beats Trump do not matter since every poll had Hillary winning?

Question

And we know how that turned out

Answer 1

Best answer

You're tapping into a common fallacy about the 2016 elections: that the polls were wrong. This is omnipresent among Trump supporters but even has traction among other people, But it's just not true. The mistake you're making is conflating pundits predictions with the polls. Pretty much everyone, including by all reporting Trump himself, thought he would lose the election. He didn't. So people got that wrong. The final batch of polls had Clinton beating Trump by about 2%, and, lo and behold, she beat him by about 2% in the popular vote. The thing is that the polls don't actually measure who is going to win. What they measure is who is most popular. Clinton was most popular and the polls got that right. Now, most of the time this is good enough because there's no difference between the winner of the popular vote and the person elected president. But in 2016 the system failed, and appointed as president the guy who got fewer votes. There was no way for the national level polls to predict this electoral college split because they only measure popularity.

So the polls predicting that Trump would lose to Biden and the other Democrats shouldn't be dismissed, or at least not because "the polls are always wrong". The polls should be presumed to be accurate, but they're accurate for how the race stands in the summer of 2019. Things could be different in the fall of 2020. Of course, they could be "different" by being even worse for Trump. So these polls are not the end of the story, but they're certainly a bad sign for Trump.

• Jeff D

  Lv 7

  5 months agoReport

  And you're tapping into the common fallacy of conflating national polls with statewide polls. The statewide polls in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, for example, showed Clinton winning those states.
  

Answer 2

Four more years of Trump and the ninth circuit will be conservative. It was 19 to 6 liberal when Trump was elected. It is 16 to 13 now. The Supreme court will be 7-2 conservative.

Answer 3

She did get nearly 3 million more votes.

You don't understand polls

• Jeff D

  Lv 7

  5 months agoReport

  And you don't understand how Presidential elections work.
  

Answer 4

Just more fake news from their failed agenda.

Answer 5

Comey saying he would reopen emails killed her campaign. Also BernieBots Pouted and did not vote. They love Trump and that's why Trump will win again big. Americans don't give a damn about American values.

Answer 6

It's really kinda funny how the left ALWAYS points to the "polls" conducted by left wing media rags. ANYONE that believes in any poll is an idiot !

Answer 7

Never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake.

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