Best Answer:
You're tapping into a common fallacy about the 2016 elections: that the polls were wrong. This is omnipresent among Trump supporters but even has traction among other people, But it's just not true. The mistake you're making is conflating pundits predictions with the polls. Pretty much everyone, including by all reporting Trump himself, thought he would lose the election. He didn't. So people got that wrong. The final batch of polls had Clinton beating Trump by about 2%, and, lo and behold, she beat him by about 2% in the popular vote. The thing is that the polls don't actually measure who is going to win. What they measure is who is most popular. Clinton was most popular and the polls got that right. Now, most of the time this is good enough because there's no difference between the winner of the popular vote and the person elected president. But in 2016 the system failed, and appointed as president the guy who got fewer votes. There was no way for the national level polls to predict this electoral college split because they only measure popularity.
So the polls predicting that Trump would lose to Biden and the other Democrats shouldn't be dismissed, or at least not because "the polls are always wrong". The polls should be presumed to be accurate, but they're accurate for how the race stands in the summer of 2019. Things could be different in the fall of 2020. Of course, they could be "different" by being even worse for Trump. So these polls are not the end of the story, but they're certainly a bad sign for Trump.
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Anonymous
· 1 month ago
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