In the 2016 US presidential election pre-polls, it gave the clear impression that Hillary would win and that trump did not have a chance.?
Has there ever been another Presidential poll that was as wrong as that one was? Please describe.
- 8 months ago
Trump only won by manipulating the electoral college with Putin's help. He didn't even know it existed until Putin told him.
- 8 months ago
Polls are designed so whomever is doing them can actually make them say what ever they want them to say.. Example, I survey 500 people on what color is best, 100 say blue, 100 say red, 300 say orange.
I can truthly say 100 people said blue was the best color, I can say 200 people out of 300 said orange, and I can say 100 people surveyed said red is best....
Surveys are a JOKE ON ANYONE WHO BELIEVES THEM.. 99 people out of 100 agreed with me.
ALL I HAVE TO DO IS COUNT THE ONES I WANT TO COUNT..
- Tmess2Lv 78 months ago
Actually, the polls did not give a clear impression the Hillary Clinton would win. They gave a clear impression that it was highly likely that Secretary Clinton would win the popular vote, and Secretary Clinton did win the popular vote.
Unfortunately, a lot of the media is statistically illiterate and missed that most of the polls in key states was within the margin of error. On the eve of the election, the folks at 538 (who actually do understand statistics) had the odds of Clinton winning at approximately 70%. A one in three chance is a very significant chance. To put it in sports terms, it is slightly better than the odds of a team winning a series when it is trailing 3-2, something that happens with some degree of regularity.
Since we have only had modern polling for about seventy years and most of the elections have not been that close going into them, the biggest upset is probably the 1948 election noted by other answers. In that election, the last polls showed Dewey winning by about 5% and Truman won by over 4% (a 9% swing). By contrast, the last average of polls according to Real Clear Politics had Clinton up by 3% and she won by 2% (a swing of 1.2%).
- Weasel McWeaselLv 78 months ago
There is a world famous picture of Truman holding up a newspaper that said "Dewey Defeats Truman".
The race was too close to call, but the publisher had deadlines to meet, and had to set his headline.
Looking at various polls, he thought Dewey had the edge.....so he prematurely set his headline, and ran with that.
Of course, the next morning.......as these papers were hitting the stands..........it was clear that Truman had actually won.
He flipped a coin and took a 50-50 shot.........and lost.
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- Warren TLv 78 months ago
1948 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
- Anonymous8 months ago
The polls in 2016 were actually pretty accurate, at least a the national level. The final batch of them predicted that Clinton would beat Trump by about 2% and that s about what she beat him by.
What went wrong was political prognostication which missed Trump s unusual strength relative to Clinton in some midwestern states. Many commentators also didn t accurately factor in the October Surprise of the FBI reopening the Clinton email investigation. That ultimately did Clinton in but I think most political forecasters assumed that earlier Clinton leads, where she was more like 5-6% ahead of Trump, would hold.
The people who got it wrong actually weren t the national media so much as Trump supporters. All throughout the campaign, Trump and his supporters were saying that the polls were wrong and that he was immensely popular, or at least more popular than Clinton. They were all wrong. Trump was not only less popular than Clinton, but he was less popular (as measured by vote share) than any candidate since the 1990s. Trump supporters also got the outcome wrong in another way. Some of them were sure that Trump would win the popular vote, but felt that he might lose the electoral college because of Democratic strength there. Of course, this ended up being completely backwards.
In terms of looking forward to the 2020 race, I think that Trump supporters also need to look at the 2018 election. Throughout that election, the polls were showing us one thing consistently: that the Democrats were going to have a good, perhaps great, showing on election night. Trump supporters, and Turmp himself. kept giving us the same song and dance they are now: "The polls were all wrong in 2016. Trump is popular. Democrats are going to lose". Guess who turned out to be right in 2018? The professional pollsters who actually relied on data. The Trumpsters, who relied solely on their own wishes, turned out to be wrong. I think that Trump fans should realize that Trump s victory in 2016, and the failure of most political hands to predict it, was really a fluke and not a sign of systemic problems with the polls or some sort of hidden popularity on the part of Trump.
- out2lunch4now2Lv 78 months ago
I recall something about "Dewey Beats Truman" from a few years back. It even got printed as a headline on some newspapers.
- Wage SlaveLv 78 months ago
The polls weren't really that far off - nationally they projected a 3.2% Hillary win, and she won with 2.1% of the vote. Compare that to 2012 when they projected Obama to win by 0.7% and he won by 3.9%.
The problem was polling in primarily Wisconsin and Michigan.Source(s): https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/pres... https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/pres...
- Anonymous8 months ago
Trust me America is used to Democrats lying.
- 8 months ago
Yes. "Dewey Defeats Truman" was an incorrect banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President, Harry S. Truman, won an upset victory over Republican challenger and Governor of New York, Thomas E. Dewey, in the 1948 presidential election.