what is the "true point spread"?
i saw on one of these sports betting advice sites that it listed the "true point spread" tafter the regular/official one. it said "the true spread is team -[number], giving slight edge to ___." do you know what this means?
- 1 month ago
Those advice sites don't know the true spread; they're just giving their opinion of what it is.
- ErikLv 71 month ago
It doesn't really mean anything, they're just saying Vegas says it should be -5, but WE say it should be -4, cause, you know, we're so smart.
- Divide By ZeroLv 71 month ago
The true point spread is what would represent the actual probabilities of each team winning, rather than what the oddsmakers or the market think. Those advice sites don't know the true spread; they're just giving their opinion of what it is.
Often the closing line differs from the opening line. That's because oddsmakers aren't perfect at their jobs, else they'd be betting rather than working for a sportsbook. The closing line reflects the influence of the smart money (betting syndicates and ballers who bet sports for a living). For these reasons, the closing line is the closest thing to the "true" line. But this is only true at books like Bookmaker, Pinnacle, their copycat books, and exchanges like Matchbook, NOT at rec-only books like Bovada, where often the opposite would apply.
- Anonymous1 month ago
The true point spread is what it would be if nobody was gambling on the game. The spread will sometimes move if too much betting is occurring on one team. To balance out the betting they will often shift the line to encourage betting on the other team.