Anonymous
Anonymous asked in Politics & GovernmentCivic Participation · 1 month ago

Trump has 91% chance of re-election, according to model that got 25 of the last 27 elections right?

The political science professor predicts Trump will have an even larger win in 2020 than his 2016 victory-

A political science professor is asserting that President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in November against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth made this political forecast by using the "Primary Model," an election prediction model that has a proven track record, including accurately predicting five out of the last six elections.

"The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November," Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

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  • 1 month ago

    IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE THAT WOULD BE A VERY GOOD THING FOR THE COUNTRY

  • Orla
    Lv 6
    1 month ago

    I read that too. His tools and methodology are inaccurate and unreliable. His study was paid for by Eric Trump. He also predicted Hillary would win. Do you understand ?

  • Alan H
    Lv 7
    1 month ago

    Strangely enough, the fairy at  the bottom of my garden said one of the flying pigs told him the sxame

  • 1 month ago

    I gave up on polls and predictions long ago but yes ill be voting for Trump if for no other reason I dont want America turning into one big Democrat ran cesspool like ever big city ran by Democrats.

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  • 1 month ago

    Thats ridiculous as can be.

  • Anonymous
    1 month ago

    Trump does not know that America has a president. He believes that he is the CEO Of THE USA for life. His objective is to make as much money from his America Inc. LLC. To actually become a billionaire autocrat like Putin. And he will win in November because he knows how to rig the election from his numerous mentorings from his friend in Russia. Make America TRUMP Again.

  • Foofa
    Lv 7
    1 month ago

    25 of 27 of the last elections didn't involve the kind of hourly shifts in major events we've seen in 2020. These are irregular times so I'm not sure the traditional predictive models make a lot of sense this year. 

  • 1 month ago

    Correct so the question then is where will his focus be in the second term. Will he take action against either Iran or Nth Korea ? 

  • 1 month ago

    I sincerely doubt that. Mr. trump has proven himself to be America's worst president. Only the very rich or the incredibly stupid still support him.

    Oh, and traitors also love him

  • xg6
    Lv 7
    1 month ago

    A historian who has predicted every race since 1984 picks Biden

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